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People_buying_new_houses
by Patrick Appel

Gary Shilling believes that housing prices are still falling:

[The] huge and growing surplus inventory of houses will probably depress prices considerably from here, perhaps another 20% over the next several years. That would bring the total decline from the first quarter 2006 peak to 42%.

This may sound like a lot, but it would return single-family house prices, corrected for general inflation and also for the tendency of houses to increase in size over time, back to the flat trend that has held since 1890.

Felix Salmon looks at both sides of the equation.

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