Testing Rasmussen Reality, Ctd

Nate Silver studies that Rasmussen Massachusetts poll: 

A 30-point drubbing by Coakley wouldn't surprise me; nor would a race that kept us up late on Election Night.

And frankly, if I were either party and my internal polling showed a 15-point margin, I'd still be thinking about putting some money into this race. Special elections in many ways resemble presidential primaries, and polls are off in primaries by an average of about 7 points. That would imply something like a 3-5 percent chance of a Brown victory, which feels about right. But considering how consequential that 5 percent could be -- the probable collapse of health care reform -- it's something worth hedging against if you're the Democrats, or taking a flier on if you're the G.O.P.