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Is Rasmussen The Only Correct Poll?
ByA reader writes:
I understand why you do it and I also understand the meme being pushed by some liberals that Rasmussen is biased. (read Nate Silver's latest) but if you don't think that President Obama has a backlash problem you have your head in the sand. I live in one of the reddest states in the country but at Christmas parties, family gatherings and even on business calls there is a rage at the President and the Congress that I have never seen. Its 1994 squared and as the economy gets worse it is going to get ugly (see Mr. Sunshine Paul Krugman today). The Republicans are already running ads in my congressional district attacking a Democratic congressman who normally gets 55-60% of the vote over health care and the economy.
In this sense, Rasmussen probably is accurate. In the reddest states, where the media is basically Fox, the intensity of Obama-hatred is obviously real (just look at the bloggy right). This little apercu from the NYT about Alabama is probably on the mark:
“The average guy out there walking the streets, he doesn’t know how anybody votes,” said Larry Lee, who has run for the seat as a Democrat three times. “They hear all this stuff about Obama’s making us all socialist and Pelosi’s riding a broomstick to work. I think he’s going to have a very tough row to hoe.”
I suspect that the turnout from these angry white voters may well be very strong in a protest election this coming November. But, even so, that doesn't mean this sub-section represents national opinion at this moment in time on issues unrelated to 2010 or that even this sub-section will be in the same mood in a few months' time. Nor is it clear that a promised Republican repeal of health insurance reform wouldn't galvanize some of Obama's base. And there's the problem of reconciling two different realities in the polling - Rasmussen and everyone else. I guess I'm going to keep removing Rasmussen, while offering their alternate reality from time to time as a constant predictive possibility for November 2010.
