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Home State Advantage

By The Daily Dish

Jan 18 2010, 11:48 AM ET

Nate Silver points to "a statistical ray of hope for Coakley":

Combining the Democratic and Republican cases, the "home state" candidate (e.g. a Democratic candidate in a very blue state) outperformed his polls in 16 cases and underperformed them in 4. On average, the final margin was 2.3 points better for the candidate than the polls anticipated.



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