The Negative-Sum 2010 Elections

 
Ezra Klein doesn't think it is 1994 all over again:

Politics is generally viewed as a zero-sum game: When one party gains, the other loses. But Republicans have pursued a strategy turning politics into a negative-sum game: Both parties lose. They have effectively harmed the Democrats' agenda but done so at great cost to their own favorability numbers.

Charlie Cook looks at the districts in contention:

Have you been in the South lately? The level of anti-Obama, anti-Democratic and anti-Congress venom is extraordinary, and with 59 Democrat-held seats in the region, 22 in or potentially in competitive districts, this is a very serious situation for Democrats. I have had several Democratic members from the region say the atmosphere is as bad or worse than it was in 1994.

Cook apparently thinks there is a 33 to 55 percent chance that the Democrats will lose the house in 2010. Brendan Nyhan has further thoughts. So does Ed Kilgore:

It's possible, and perhaps even probable, that the GOP strategy for 2010 is to create a political environment so toxic and voter-alienating that Republicans can win a very low turnout election by whipping their base into a genuine frenzy. That's obviously not a very good scenario for the country, and it remains to be seen if it's even good for the GOP.