Nate Silver that Palin won't run for president and that she won't win the nomination:

[A] strategic politician seeking the Oval Office should, all else equal, wait until she is not running against an incumbent president enjoying the many advantages incumbency provides, from access to the bully pulpit to control over the levers of government. History says the odds are better if you wait.

Since when has Palin ever been a "strategic politician"? Since when has she even acted rationally? I think it's hers to lose, except she has lost and she has quit and she's still loved. The movement behind Palin is pure cultural revolt. It has as much interest in actually governing as she has.