Will Iran Fail To Build A Bomb?

by Patrick Appel

Clive Thompson profiles Bueno de Mesquita, "one of the world’s most prominent applied game theorists,"   who applied game theory to Iran's nuclear program. His conclusion:

By early 2010, according to the forecast, Iran will be at the brink of developing one, but then it will stop and go no further. If this computer model is right, all the dire portents we’ve seen in recent months the brutal crackdown on protesters, the dubious confessions, Khamenei’s accusations of American subterfuge are masking a tectonic shift. The moderates are winning, even if we cannot see that yet.

Let's hope his model is right, but I'm skeptical that these questions can be predicted by equations alone.