by Peter Suderman

Opponents of same-sex marriage tend to cast it in the gloomiest, most terrifying light. Maggie Gallagher, for example, once wrote that it could "mean losing American civilization." But do they really have confidence in their predictions? Steve Chapman decides to find out:

I contacted three serious conservative thinkers who have written extensively about the dangers of allowing gay marriage and asked them to make simple, concrete predictions about measurable social indicatorsmarriage rates, divorce, out-of-wedlock births, child poverty, you name it.

You would think they would react like Albert Pujols when presented with a hanging curveball. Yet none was prepared to forecast what would happen in same-sex marriage states versus other states.