When Pipe Dreams And Reality Collide

by Patrick Appel

Romney has been mentioned as a contender for Kennedy's seat. Nate Silver analyzes whether a Republican has a shot:

Short answer: Very probably not. Longer answer: Almost certainly not if the candidate is Mitt Romney. Romney served one term as governor of Massachusetts and was not popular at the time he left office. A Survey USA poll conducted in mid-November 2006 put the outgoing governor's approval rating at just 34 percent, against 65 percent disapproval. This poll does not particularly seem to have been an outlier. A Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire poll in late October, 2006 also had Romney's approval numbers in the red -- 34 percent of likely voters had a favorable impression of him and 54 percent an unfavorable one -- and polling conducted throughout 2005 (before Romney announced in December of that year that he would not seek a second term) showed him as many as 16 points behind his prospective Democratic rivals. Voters had evidently had enough of the guy.