What Is Khameme'i's Game?

Brian Ulrich on Khamene'i ordering an investigation into voter fraud:

This is first and foremost an attempt to defuse the protests. Khamene'i has already left no doubt as to his preferences, and is probably hoping to just come back and say, "OK, Ahmadinejad only got 55%." However, at this point I don't see anything that has the incumbent over 50% flying with protestors, who may see this as a sign that their efforts are paying off.

On the other hand, this plus an even harsher crackdown could persuade some to stay off the streets for awhile, allowing the hard-liners to assert themselves.

He also pushes back against Nate Silver and Iranian polls.