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That Graph Again
ByA reader writes:
I'm with Nate Silver on this one. I plotted the 2008 presidential
election results with each data point representing a poll-closing time
(7PM EST, 7:30PM, etc.), to give a better idea than Nate's analysis of
results over time. Doing this using the electoral vote count, I got an
R-squared of 0.95, which is already very high. I suspected that doing
it using the popular vote, given its more granular nature, would yield
a higher value. And so it does. See the graph below (Obama votes on
the bottom, McCain votes on the right), with a basically perfect
correlation of 1. As Nate says, this doesn't disprove fraud (or the
compelling nature of the election, come to that); it only shows that
the graph does not prove fraud.
My reader's graph after the jump:
