Placing Bets

Steve Coll doesn't like the protesters' chances:

All of the opening source evidence since the last round of counter-revolutionary street protests suggests that there has been no particular strengthening of the urban and merchant forces who constitute the backbone of “reform” in Iran. If anything, the Defenders of the Revolution seem stronger now, since their militias, conservative foundations, and overseas networks have been strengthened by the money flowing from expensive oil. Yes, the economy is in trouble, and yes, the urban reform forces can make a lot of noise in the streets, since they live and thrive in the cities. This, however, a counter-revolution does not make. The Obama Administration has banked on engagement with the “real” Iran. Surely the Administration is right to lay its long-shot bet on the protestsmorally, and otherwise. But let’s not kid ourselves about how the roulette wheel is most likely to spin.

I'm not so sure. Not so sure at all. But none of us knows. All I can promise is that we'll do our best to cover it.