If The Regime Were To Fall

Larison looks ahead:

What I have seen no one discuss is the potential for separatist groups, particularly Kurdish and Baluchi groups, seizing the opportunity of a distracted or tottering regime to try to hive off autonomous or independent enclaves, potentially encouraging separatists in neighboring states to intervene more directly on their behalf or copy them inside the states where they reside. Pakistani Baluchistan is unstable enough without a successful example of Baluchi separatism being established across the border. Iraqi and Turkish Kurdistan could likewise experience greater unrest and violence as Iranian Kurdish militants take advantage of the upheaval. Even if such regions did not entirely break away from Tehran’s control, they could serve as bases for the destabilization of neighboring states, all of which are our allies.