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538 Runs The Numbers Again
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Not only did Ahmadinejad beat Karroubi in his base of support, he crushed him beyond all recognition. Karroubi's
share of the vote in Lorestan was cleaved by a factor of ten, and in
only two other of the provinces did he break above 1%. Even with a
consolidation of conservative support, and possible defection of
Karroubi supporters to Mousavi (who was likely perceived as the
candidate more likely to win) this large of shift is hard to imagine.
Again, as we have mentioned on several occasions, the numbers still do not prove any wrongdoing, as large scale changes in public opinion do happen regularly around the world. However, given the polling data in the run-up to the balloting, and the historical trend away from electoral domination in the first round by one candidate, this very fishy regional data tends to strongly support that which the canceled Mousavi protest was meant to express.
Again, as we have mentioned on several occasions, the numbers still do not prove any wrongdoing, as large scale changes in public opinion do happen regularly around the world. However, given the polling data in the run-up to the balloting, and the historical trend away from electoral domination in the first round by one candidate, this very fishy regional data tends to strongly support that which the canceled Mousavi protest was meant to express.
