More On The D-Word

Calculated Risk has a helpful post on what a depression is and whether we are in one. As you can see from the above chart, we are not yet near the 10 percent decline in real GDP required to officially classify the current recession as a depression. Calculated Risk:

I still think a depression is very unlikely. More likely the economy will bottom later this year or at least the rate of economic decline will slow sharply. I also still believe that the eventual recovery will be very sluggish, and it will take some time to return to normal growth.