19 Months

Ackerman thinks Obama's revised Iraq time-table is a political masterstroke:

Portraying a three-month delay in pulling combat forces out as a “compromise” with those who wanted a slower withdrawal is a great way to nullify bureaucratic opposition to withdrawal. The “23-months” option was mooted, considered, and rejected, and it’s very hard to see see how 90 extra days of combat could be substantively problematic to even hardcore antiwar forces Last year, withdrawing combat forces from Iraq on a fixed timetable was “reckless.” This year it’s the “compromise” policy of the U.S. government. Everyone gets something thereby neutralizing rejectionism and those who want to end the war get the lion’s share. Ironically, it’s wise counterinsurgency strategy.

It's the last point I worry about. If he pulls this off without igniting serious sectarian conflict in Iraq and destabilizing the Maliki "government", it will be as welcome as it will be a surprise (to me). But, hey, I've been surprised before. I just hope Obama is not derailed when the inevitable moment of truth emerges.