"Decades, Even A Century"

Michael Yon has some very shrewd things to say about the immense regional challenges of the Afghan war, and is particularly sharp at how Russia and Pakistan will always be fucking with us:

Beyond the fact that we will need to dedicate decades or even a century to Afghanistan, no country in the neighborhood will cooperate except when it directly affects their own interests.  They will attempt to squeeze every dollar and concession from us as we help secure their neighborhoods, all while the present drug-dealing Afghan government is bucking like a mule while our government is preparing to pin a significant amount of our combat power in a landlocked country.

The sum of many factors leaves me with a bad feeling about all this.  The Iraq war, even during the worst times, never seemed like such a bog. Yet there is something about our commitment in Afghanistan that feels wrong, as if a bear trap is hidden under the sand.

I feel the same way. The Vietnam analogy is less strained than it was. Fareed's constructive piece persuaded me it's pretty doomed, barring a deal with the Taliban. Reihan is unbowed:

When Andrew calls Afghanistan an ungovernable wasteland, I have to say, I don’t fully get it. Even the Soviets, for all their brutality and incompetence, came very close to making a deal with Massoud in the latter days of their occupation. The Soviet defeat in Afghanistan was not inevitable that’s why they made a movie about Charlie Wilson’s War.

And we happen to be in a far more favorable position than the Soviets for any number of reasons, not least that a majority, albeit a dwindling majority, of Afghans supports our presence.

This really, really isn’t a left-right issue. I don’t agree with [Fred] Kagan on everything. For one thing, I come down differently on the tradeoffs involved in sharply increasing military spending. But I think he’s on the side of the angels here, as he was on changing our political-military strategy in Iraq.

(Photo: A large load of mail sent to soldiers killed or wounded in action sits awaiting transport out of the Korengal Outpost October 29, 2008 in the Kunar Province of eastern Afghanistan. U.S. Army Viper Company of the 1-26 Infantry, based in the battle-scarred Korengal Valley, has had 6 soldiers killed since the unit deployed there in mid-July. Because of the delay in transporting letters and packages to such remote outposts, mail for soldiers killed in action often arrives many months after they died. The Korengal Valley is the site of some of the heaviest fighting between American forces and Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan. By John Moore/Getty.)