After We Leave

Thomas P.M. Barnett weighs in:

...as the drawdown in Iraq unfolds, we will begin to see whether or not the surge really ended the internal violence or just delayed it inevitable final spasms. There is no regional agreement, much less forum for any such agreement to be pursued, regarding Iraq's future. So little's been decided even as much has effectively been postponed. In short, the question of Iraq coming apart still remains, with me still thinking the soft partition (already here on the Kurds) is inevitable, the only question being the nature of the weak federalism. The Sunnis may have given up the dream of a unitary Iraq, but I'm not sure the Shia have--much less Iran.