We Will Win

Kevin Drum gives his take on prop 8:

In one sense, this might have been inevitable: this is precisely the margin I projected six months ago based on basic demographic trends. What's more, the voting trends are exactly what you'd expect: strong No votes in the liberal coastal counties, especially in the north, and Yes votes in the conservative inland counties. On the other hand, it was only two points. I really, really wonder if we could have beaten it if Barack Obama had been willing to step up and take a bit of a risk on behalf of defeating it. Especially toward the end, when it was unlikely to hurt him in the national race. If he had cut an ad to run over the final weekend, would it have made the difference? Maybe.

...The good news, I guess, is that the same demographic trends that doomed gay marriage this year also guarantee its eventual victory. We'll try this again in five or ten years and win easily.

I think the experience of actual gay married couples in California will make the difference. This takes time. There are bigots on the other side, for sure. But also cautious people. We need to reassure them. That's what the reality of inter-racial married couples did for miscegenation laws. That's what our lives and experiences will do for the final barrier. Take heart and know hope. And I promise that's the last time I'll use that phrase. We all know it now.