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SOFA Reax
By
Drum:
This is good for the Iraqis, who really do need the U.S. presence for a little while longer; good for George Bush, who's getting a slightly longer timetable than Barack Obama would have negotiated; and good for Obama, since this essentially makes his decision to withdraw into a bipartisan agreement. After all, conservatives can hardly complain about Obama following a timetable that was negotiated and approved by Bush.
What it doesn't accomplish is to guarantee that those opposed to it will refrain from illegitimate armed resistance. For the time being, I've only heard of the Sadrist movement and Iran expressing opposition. Iran's opposition has reportedly softened with the election of an American president committed to withdrawing troops as soon as possible. The Sadrist militia, meanwhile, is reportedly weakened, and the fact that Ayatollah Ali Sistani has accepted the Iraqi Parliament's jurisdiction on this probably ties Sadr's hands.
While this agreement does call for G.I.s to be out by the end of 2011, a well-informed source says, there's nothing stopping the Iraqis from drawing up another document, down the road, that extends U.S. forces' stay. Now, maybe that second agreement will never be written. Maybe an Obama administration will find no reason to prolong the Iraq conflict -- even if it's allowed to do so, on paper. Or maybe U.S. troops will continue patrolling Iraq, more than eight years after this war began.
Some Western observers have assumed that the 2011 date is non-negotiable once the agreement is signed, but that is not true. Insisting on a provision that any side could bring certain articles of the agreement to a premature close was one reason the Iraqis sent the agreement back to the US a month ago.
And, just for fun, Hugh Hewitt:
Only blinkered victims of Bush Derangement Syndrome would want to throw away the fact of a multi-party, multi-ethnic democratic government in the heart of the Arab world, one capable of countering Iranian influence in the region and one that partners with the West in the ongoing battle against al Qaeda. The new agreement calls for the full withdrawal of American forces in three years --an orderly exit that allows order to endure within Iraq.
Will President-elect Obama modify his rhetoric in order to preserve such an important victory, or will he rush the withdrawal and endanger the stability?
My take here.
