Franken's Chances

Nate Silver tries to do the math. His bottom line:

Franken is anywhere from the prohibitive underdog in the recount to the prohibitive favorite...it's very important that Franken's deficit is is down to 221 votes, rather than the 700 or so that it appeared to be originally. Suppose that the Corretable Error Rate is 0.75%, and that Franken wins 50.5% of corrected ballots; we have him winning the recount 39.3% of the time under these assumptions. If, however, Franken had to make up 700 votes rather than 221, his win percentage under these assumptions would be just 0.008% percent -- about a 13,000-to-1 longshot.

The margin is now down to 206.

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