Bellwethers

Brian Schaffner says to keep an eye on Virginia:

Virginia may tell us more about this election than any other state. Not only does the map look very difficult for McCain if he loses Virginia (particularly if the networks can call it relatively quickly), but the demographics in Virginia can provide us with some useful insight into what may happen in other states.

In 2004, exit polls indicated that African Americans made up 21% of the Virginia electorate. Will that figure improve in 2008 and, if so, by how much? What will the party id figures look like? In 2004, 39% of voters said they were Republicans compared to 35% who were Democrats. Democrats would like (and probably expect) to see those numbers flip in Virginia just as they are looking for party id gains in other high growth states like North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada.

I'll be watching Mitch McConnell in Kentucky. If he goes down early, it's a blowout.