Obama And The Culture Wars

Kevin Drum and Brian Beutler respond to my call for Obama to stand up against prop 8. Beutler explains Obama's predicament by citing Obama's "theory of change":

...the theory doesn't really allow Obama to ever take a bold position on cultural chasms in America. Yes, he's acutely aware of the congressional math that "change" requires, and I think his silence on prop 8 can be traced directly to that--why risk a Senate seat in a red state, a vote on a progressive health care bill, to cut a controversial ad of marginal impact in California. But once Obama wins--after he's maximized his base of support in the House and the Senate--he'll be presiding over a divided country--not just a ballot measure in California--and he'll be just as hamstrung as he is right now [...]

Herein lies the potential for great politics when the point of order is health care, or stimulus, or the environment--anything that has a significant empirical aspect to it. The problem is that, as a corollary to this approach, Obama can't really touch the moral divides that split the country--abortion and gay marriage--without jeopardizing other coalitions. At the end of the day it seems as if he's come to terms with that trade off. But it is a trade off, and it means that we can expect Obama to limit his real impact on culture wars to the appointment of like-minded judges, silent in the hope that the tide of history--looming demographic realignment, maybe, or a politically mobilized youth--will bring about the change on its own over time.