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The Daily Dish - 2006-2011 archives for The Daily Dish, featuring Andrew Sullivan

Gallup On Early Voting

By The Daily Dish
Oct 25 2008, 3:45 AM ET

It doesn't seem to be skewed toward either candidate, but that means that Obama is probably ahead, according to Gallup's latest:

Obama has been ahead in Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted while these data were being gathered. Thus, while equal percentages of Obama and McCain voters have voted early, there are more of the former than of the latter, meaning that early voting generally reflects the same Obama lead evident in the overall sample. Thus, if McCain gains rapidly in the days left, Obama benefits, since Obama can't lose votes he has already received. If McCain loses support rapidly, Obama will not have the chance to pick up even more support from those who have already voted.



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