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The Daily Dish - 2006-2011 archives for The Daily Dish, featuring Andrew Sullivan

Could Obama's Lead Snowball?

By The Daily Dish
Oct 15 2008, 1:43 AM ET

My general expectation is that polls tighten from now on. A decent performance from McCain tonight, independent qualms about one-party government, some stabilization in stocks: this should help the GOP. But I'm also prepared to entertain a new scenario. As McCain declines, the angry, bitter rump of his party gets to define him more and more. Sane Republicans flee the Palin asylum, base Republicans demand even more anger, the actual economy worsens on the ground in the next three weeks ... and a bandwagon effect begins to help Obama.

Now factor in the Obama money advantage and, above all, the get-out-the-vote machine. I don't know anyone not in clinical denial - hello, Michael Barone! - who thinks McCain's base turn-out machine is equal to Obama's. So this could become a tighter race ... or snowball into a landslide as big as any in history. I'm now leaning toward the latter but not dumb enough to say so out loud.



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