+23%

Obama is dominating with early voting in Iowa, North Carolina, New Mexico, Georgia, and Ohio. I'm unsure of the current polls showing a massive lead for Obama. But equally it would not surprise me if this race actually widened, and that the final result were on a double-digit kind of scale. Just as there is a chance of the invisible hand of racism suddenly undercutting Obama in the polling booth, so there is a chance of an historic one-off turn-out from African-Americans and young people that confounds all the conventional polling expectations. We could be just as surprised on the up-side as on the down-side. There are a lot of young and black people in this country. And they usually don't vote as often as they could.