According to RCP's poll of polls, McCain's post-convention bounce peaked at a 2.9 percent national lead over Obama on September 8. Six days later, it's now at 1.3 percent. Obama's post convention bounce gave him a peak of 6.4 percent on September 2. It was gone by September 6. Pollster's poll of polls gives McCain a national lead of 1.8 percent. Pollster's electoral college prediction still shows a small Obama advantage. RCP's electoral college tally records a small advantage for Obama-Biden in the electoral college. But 538 shows a clear McCain lead in the electoral college.
Now's the time to begin to see the fundamentals emerge after both conventions and the soap opera of Palin temporarily dies down. Basically: it's tied with a tiny edge to McCain in the national vote and a tiny edge to Obama in the electoral college. Gallup's tracking shows the race closing again. My own view is that Palin has all but killed the McCain candidacy. And her real advantage was novelty. Once people realize she has no record of even interest in foreign policy and is a serial liar, her unfavorables will continue to rise.