The Iranian Threat

A reader thinks out loud:

My frustration with the right is that many never concede that bombing Iran is a bad option too. There are awful consequences to forcing the Mullahs into a retaliation. Far better to still the centrifuges by diplomacy, however unlikely, or sabotage, even less likely. That said, the recent gestures and exercises from Israel have a lot to do with defining the red line. It is now a North Korea test.

My frustration with the left is that it doesn't quite matter that Iran will not launch a first strike, though I am less sure than some on this. It is almost certain that Iranian leaders will still talk as if they will launch such a strike on Israel after they test a nuclear device. That will also pose an existential threat for Israel, as international capital flees Israel and it could trigger the reverse exodus that Arafat hoped to accomplish with his second Intifadah. Add to that a nuclear arms race in the middle of the world's energy supply; a nuclear umbrella for Hezbollah, Hamas and the Mahdi Army; and the pressure on our Gulf Allies to appease now two masters. The consequences of Iran going nuclear are terrible even if they don't make good on Ahmadinejad's promise to wipe Israel from the pages of history. A nonviolent democratic revolution really can't come sooner. But those prospects seem more remote today than they did in 2003.