Marriage Going Nuclear?

Chris Crain:

The battle over same-sex marriage is about to go nuclear. Not because it may impact this year's presidential race, as some have worried. But because the skirmishes will now multiply into a multi-front struggle that will determine whether access to civil marriage for the rest of us comes sooner or much, much later...In the other 48 states, gay newlyweds returning from California will over time be raising issues that will challenge not just the state constitutionality of marriage bans but their federal constitutionality as well, along with the holy grail: the constitutionality of the federal Defense of Marriage Act.

Count me unconvinced. There is a very clear consensus now in favor of federalism working its magic. Even without DOMA, the states' autonomy in this area has very clear precedents. And the toxic federal government interpretation of DOMA - the Clinton clauses that deny gay couples any federal recognition whatsoever - may well be repealed in the next Congress anyway.