Politics Is Like Baseball

Poblano reveals his identity:

My real name is Nate Silver and my principal occupation has been as a writer, analyst and partner at a sports media company called Baseball Prospectus.  What we do over there and what I'm doing over here are really quite similar. Both baseball and politics are data-driven industries. But a lot of the time, that data might be used badly. In baseball, that may mean looking at a statistic like batting average when things like on-base percentage and slugging percentage are far more correlated with winning ballgames. In politics, that might mean cherry-picking a certain polling result or weaving together a narrative that isn't supported by the demographic evidence.

I had dinner last night with an old friend, Comment Central's Danny Finklestein. Danny writes a football (soccer) column  as well as political blog. And he regaled me over Larb Gai about the statistical training sports journalism requires. It comes in handy. It was mathematics that persuaded him that Clinton was doomed a while back. My math, as you all know, is terrible. But I can link!