The Case Against Obama

He will be swift-boated in a nano-second by the right-wing "freak show" in the fall, argue VanDeHei and Harris. They say that's something Clinton cannot say. But she has said it, basically. Everything she has done in this campaign is rooted in that premise. And she has no other argument at this point. Yet Obama keeps winning. Joe Klein responds here. He's certainly right that the Clintons' baggage remains much more than carry-on and hasn't yet been inspected in full.

But the deeper truth, is this: If you assume that nothing much has changed in American politics since 2004, Harris and VanDeHei have a point. My guess is that they're mistakenly if understandably inferring from the past, not accurately projecting the future.

But then, I'm one of those people who believe a) that this country's problems are more severe than anything since the 1970s; and b) that people are sick of Morris-Rove politicking. Both are obviously arguable propositions, but the emergence of both McCain and Obama in this cycle seems to me to suggest that change actually is afoot. That's why c) Obama's sheer political talent needs to be taken into account as well. He's much better than Gore or Kerry as a politician. And Clinton too. He has judged the public mood more successfully so far than any other Democrat or Republican - if you look at how many have voted for him and donated to him and caucused and volunteered for him. Is it all a fluke? A fairy-tale? I don't know, of course, but I doubt it.