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The Daily Dish - 2006-2011 archives for The Daily Dish, featuring Andrew Sullivan

The Diebold Effect And Clinton

By The Daily Dish
Jan 16 2008, 12:19 PM ET

A former skeptic examines the data from New Hampshire and finds strong evidence that, controlling for all other variables, the voting machines seemed skewed in a big way:

To my complete (and continuing) amazement, the "diebold effect" on Hillary's votes remains after controlling for any and all of those demographic variables, with a p-value of <.001: that is, there are less than 1:1000 odds for this difference occurring through chance alone, and that's after adjusting for variability in Hillary's votes due to education, income, total population, and population density.

While this "diebold effect" varies in magnitude depending on the exact covariates used, it seems to center around an additional 5.2% of votes going for Clinton from Diebold machines. The same analysis shows a Diebold disadvantage for Obama of about -4.2%, significant with a p<.001, using the same covariates.



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