More Edwards Thoughts

By not endorsing Obama, Edwards is effectively aiding Clinton. This comment on a TPM discussion thread stood out:

By withdrawing from the race, Edwards changes the dynamic in Congressional Districts with odd numbers of delegates. It used to be that just about wherever he cracked 15%, Hillary and Obama would split the same number of delegates (1-1, 2-2, etc.) and Edwards would walk away with a single delegate. Now, in an odd numbered district, the winner will always take more delegates.

So do the math. Edwards is most likely to crack 15% in heavily-white, largely poor areas. Who gains a delegate there? He was least likely to draw threshold support in heavily-black areas. So who does his withdrawal fail to benefit?

I wish it were otherwise. But the bottom line is that 15% of the vote for Edwards almost always helped Obama more than adding that same 15% of the vote to his own tally.

Of course, focusing the entire Super Tuesday on a clear Obama-Clinton choice might also rally all the anti-Clinton feeling behind one candidate. I'd be lying if I said I had a clear idea what will happen.