Surge Stats Update

TPM's readers and staff do some leg-work. Money quote:

If you chart the month-to-month civilian casualty statistics just in 2007 then the post-surge monthlies in the AP's count toggle a bit, but they hit a high in May, drop significantly in June, and creep back upward afterward. In the IBC's count, since the surge begins, the numbers drop in April, tick up slightly in May and then drop in June. That pattern roughly tracks with the AP's findings, giving confidence in the methodology of each. (However, the post-April 2007 figures are probably going to be revised upward.)

What the figures do show, however, is that 2007 remains more deadly for Iraqis, month for month, than did 2006. The two exceptions, May and June 2007 in IBC's count, may not stay exceptions for long, but they count as less deadly months for Iraqis than the previous year. In neither count did Iraq experience fewer than 1000 civilian casualties each month in 2007. Neither of these counts include other important metrics, such as population displacement or sectarian killings; nor killings by Shiite death squads vs. Sunni insurgents; or incidences of car bombings or other mass-casualty events.