An Accidental Victory?

Here's a challenging analysis of the war on terror thus far:

The Strategic Energy Ellipse (SEE) is a region of extreme strategic importance to the United States. It stretches from the northern shore of the Caspian Sea to the southern terminus of the Persian Gulf. Within this region are oilfields that hold approximately 70 percent of the world's proven reserves of crude oil and gas fields that hold about 40 percent of the global natural gas reserves. Any group, nation or coalition of nations able to dominate this region would hold the keys to domination of a world economy dependent on these fuels.

Strategically, the United States cannot allow such a domination to occur. This is what is at stake in the region, and all the concerns about Iraq and Afghanistan must take a back seat to this larger consideration.

Currently, there are three potential threats to domination of the SEE:

A pan-Islamic coalition of states that rises in a new caliphate under the banner of al Qaeda.

A hegemonic Iran dominating the Persian Gulf and southern Caspian.

A revived, imperialist Russia or a Russo-Sino coalition.

The great foreign policy achievement of the Bush administration will be remembered as the defeat of the first of these threats and the containment of the second, with the potential building blocks in place to confront the third.

The author argues that this happened "on an ad hoc basis, pursued primarily by military planners who needed bases from which to attack al Qaeda."