There Are Many Iraqs

I recommend reading the actual report on which my paper, the Sunday Times, based its story on Iraqis feeling more confident about the future. The sectarian differences in perspective are much more striking than headlines about "Iraqis". From the press release:

Despite the horrendous personal security problems only 26 percent of the country preferred life under the previous regime of Saddam Hussein, with 49 percent preferring life under the current political regime of Noori al-Maliki. As one may expect, it is the Sunnis who are most likely to back the previous regime (51 percent) with the Shias (66 percent) preferring the current administration.

Carried out amongst a nationally representative sample of 5,019 Iraqi adults aged 18yrs+ and coming just days before the fourth anniversary of the invasion of Iraq, the poll reveals that despite the rising number of civilian deaths each month as a result of militia activity, only 27% would concede that their country is actually in a state of civil war. Opinion here is clearly divided, as 22% feel “we are close to a state of civil war but not yet in one” while 18% argue that the country is “still some way from civil war”.

So, in fact, almost half of Iraqis currently say that their country is either in or close to a state of civil war. The numbers are very different in the Shia-dominated South from the more Sunni north:

Regionally, 43% of those in the Shia dominated South of the country claim 'Iraq will never get as far as civil war'. This figure in the Sunni dominated north plummets to 5 percent where most (42 percent) feel the country is already in a state of civil war.

It's worth downloading and reading the whole PDF file. What I learn from it is that Saddam truly was a hideous monster, but that Iraq is still a terribly divided country that still wants to remain a single country. That means soft partition may be hard; and it means civil war could be long and intense and also regional. Much of the action will not take place in the South but in the north and Baghdad. We could be fighting this for a very, very long time if we decide to stay enmeshed.

Two contrary blogposts discussing the story can be read here (pro-surge) and here (anti-surge).