The Shiite Militias

In the last few weeks, there have been a few slivers of hope that maybe their current quiescence is not merely a factor of lying low until the U.S. leaves, but may indicate a more constructive approach to Iraq's future. Some new data seems to be undermining that hope. The good news is that Moqtada al-Sadr appears to be losing his grip on the chaotic organization; the bad news is that the various rival gangs and militias are no less dangerous but much less containable. And Iran is getting more involved. Money quote from a troubling USA Today report late last week:

The Mahdi Army commanders, who said they would be endangered if their names were revealed, said Iran's Revolutionary Guards were funding and arming the defectors from their force, and that several hundred over the last 18 months had slipped across the Iranian border for training by the Quds force.

In recent weeks, Mahdi Army fighters who escaped possible arrest in the Baghdad security push have received $600 each upon reaching Iran. The former Mahdi Army militiamen working for the Revolutionary Guards operate under the cover of a relief agency for Iraqi refugees, they said. Once fighters defect, they receive a monthly stipend of $200, said the commanders.

Alireza Jafarzadeh, a spokesman for an Iranian dissident group, told reporters in New York on Tuesday that Iraqi Shiite guerrillas and death squads were being trained in secret camps in Iran with the blessing of top Tehran government leaders and at least three senior Iraqi political figures.

Inside Iraq, the breakaway troops are using the cover of the Mahdi Army itself, the commanders said.

Between the Mahdi Army and capture of British soldiers by Tehran, the chances of an escalating military conflict with Iran just seemed to increase a little.