Clive Crook

I have a column in the FT this morning that discusses rival approaches to the subprime mess. There may be little or nothing the authorities can do to arrest these forces, but politics will insist they try. For the moment, foreclosures are the focus of attention. Congress is considering changes to bankruptcy laws, making it harder for lenders to foreclose and allowing judges to write down mortgage principal as part of a bankruptcy proceeding. Mr Paulson is opposed… More »

In a new column for National Journal I argue that John McCain's fiscal arithmetic does not add up. Not long ago John McCain was almost boasting that he knew little about economics. That kind of candor, a distinctive McCain trait, is likable but has its limits. His days of making jokes about his ignorance appear to be over. Worries about the economy began to dominate public opinion even before the current slowdown was properly under way. Between now and November,… More »

Curiouser and curiouser. Commenters on my previous post draw my attention to reports that the Clinton campaign also contacted Canadian officials to tell them the very thing that she excoriated Obama's adviser, Austan Goolsbee, for saying--namely, to take all the anti-NAFTA stuff with a grain of salt, it was all just politics. This is from AFP: OTTAWA (AFP) -- US presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton's campaign, while rapping rival Barack Obama for telling US voters… More »

I forgot to post my column from this morning 's FT on Hillary's wins in Ohio and Texas. For the many readers of this page (I know there are dozens of you) who get to the column through my portal, apologies. Here it is, in full, to save you any further clicking around. Tenacity and hard work check Obama momentum By Clive Crook Published: March 5 2008 19:41 | Last updated: March 5 2008 19:41 Barack Obama remains favourite to win the Democratic… More »

Economically speaking, America could soon be more European than Europe

In the spirit of my previous post, I'm not much interested for now in the elected-delegate count. I'm trying to keep tabs on the popular vote, on the theory that this will carry great weight with the superdelegates. As I write, only two-thirds of the Texas votes are in, but it looks as though Obama might eke out a narrow win there, to set against Hillary's comfortable--though not crushing--win in Ohio. In terms of the popular vote, Vermont and Rhode Island will… More »

The first Super Tuesday checked Obama's momentum--but then he recovered with 11 straight wins in the following contests. That second remarkable surge had his campaign hoping for a knockout blow today--and even had many commentators calling for Hillary to withdraw. The Clinton campaign, playing the expectations game with some success, is now getting ready to deem anything but a clean sweep by Obama in the second Super Tuesday a setback for him. On the face of it,… More »

My new column for the FT asks why Hillary's campaign has stumbled. A main reason, I argue, is the sincerity deficit. When Texas and Ohio vote in Tuesday’s Democratic primaries, they may bring Hillary Clinton’s campaign for the presidency to an end. If she loses either of those states, her bid is over barring the formalities. This is a position few expected her to be in. Not long ago, success in the primaries and victory in the general election were regarded as… More »

Gideon Rachman has posted a response to my post on his column about Obama's speeches. I'll offer a last brief word, and then leave the verdict on Obama's speeches to history. First of all, though, on a personal note, let me say how stunned I am to be accused of (in my previous life at The Economist) "remorseless logic, fierce invective, and a total lack of sentimentality". Gideon, you wound me, I bleed. Surely not. I was universally regarded as a complete softy--or… More »

I’ve been giving some thought to a column by Gideon Rachman in last week's FT on the “lousy, empty speeches” of Barack Obama. Gideon is a brilliant fellow and, it so happens, an old friend. It has troubled me that he could be so wrong about this, and I feel I owe it to him to set him straight. Surely the simplest test of a speaker is the effect he has on his audience. It is indisputable that Obama has moved and even inspired hundreds of thousands of… More »

I filed a column yesterday that the FT will run on Monday (it will be posted on the blog Sunday night), asking what went wrong with Hillary Clinton’s campaign. The answer of course is many things, not least Barack Obama, but the thing I focus on is Hillary’s difficulty with seeming genuine—such a contrast with Barack's seemingly effortless authenticity. So much about her, so much of what she says, seems plotted, rehearsed, and false. But I wish I had read… More »

I have lost count of how many people have sent me or urged me to read his column on the New York Times and John McCain. As others have remarked, it is a classic--and a Kinsley classic is an awesome thing. To be absolutely clear: the Times itself was not suggesting that there had been an affair, or even that there had been the appearance of an affair. The Times was reporting that there was a time eight years ago when some people felt there might be the appearance of… More »

I met the great man only once, and it was an odd experience. Michael Kinsley roped me into appearing in a "Firing Line Debate", which he, Kinsley, was chairing; presumably I was being asked because somebody else had dropped out. I was to speak on Buckley's team in favor of the proposition that the budget deficit was a bad thing, or words to that effect. This was back in 1992. In those days a lot of conservatives thought that big deficits were wrong, whereas most… More »

Clinton and Obama both did well. I wouldn't say there was a clear winner, or that anything in the debate was likely to change anybody's mind--despite good probing questions from Russert and Williams. Hillary came across as the more forceful and dominating of the two, as usual, and Obama the more flexible and reflective. They engaged with no issues of substance that have not already been flogged to death, as far as I could see. I did think Obama was a little tepid… More »

Interesting. Until the last question, I was getting ready to say that this was the first debate that Obama had won outright. The format, allowing for longer answers than usual, suited him well. He was relaxed and assured. And some of the questions (especially the ones from John King, I thought) were more probing than average, inviting the kind of considered response that plays to Obama's strength. He did well on the "commander-in-chief" question, too. Oddly,… More »

Obama won big. Last week I pointed to an interesting article by Jay Cost which argued against the idea that Obama had already built unstoppable momentum, and showed that demographics could account for his recent run of successes, leaving Texas and Ohio as likely wins for Hillary. Jay's update on Wisconsin is worth reading. If it is right, the news is bad for Hillary. Hillary Clinton suffered a stinging blow last night, losing Wisconsin by 15 points. What is… More »

I should have known this but I confess I didn't: Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign intends to go after delegates whom Barack Obama has already won in the caucuses and primaries if she needs them to win the nomination. This strategy was confirmed to me by a high-ranking Clinton official on Monday. And I am not talking about superdelegates, those 795 party big shots who are not pledged to anybody. I am talking about getting pledged delegates to switch sides… More »

Something I should have mentioned in my previous post on Obama's "Patriot Employers" plan is the possibility, indeed the likelihood, that the arrangements he's proposing are at odds with US treaty obligations under the WTO. Of course I understand that this only makes the idea even more attractive to hardline anti-trade types, Democrat and Republican alike. But I keep being told that one of the reasons for supporting Obama is that he would improve and even transform… More »

Avidly seeking the blue-collar vote--in Wisconsin today and Texas and Ohio on March 4th--Obama continues to pump up the anti-trade populism, and to tack even further to the left. Ed Luce reports in the FT: Barack Obama on Monday made an aggressive pitch at Ohio’s blue-collar workers by proposing a “Patriot Employers” plan that would lower corporate taxes for companies that did not ship jobs overseas. The proposal, which came two weeks before the critical… More »

In my column today for the Financial Times, I respond to the unsettling suggestion (to me, anyway) that Barack Obama could turn out to be the Tony Blair of American politics: With eight wins out of eight in the most recent contests and another expected on Tuesday in Wisconsin, Barack Obama is for the first time the clear favourite to win the Democratic nomination. His support continues to broaden: beyond the affluent, who liked him from the outset; beyond blacks,… More »