Clive Crook

Larry Summers explains why the share of public spending in GDP will surge over the next few decades even if the role of government is left unchanged. The first reason is demography. Between Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and some smaller programs about 32 percent of the federal budget, or about 7.7 percent of gross domestic product, is devoted to supporting those over 65. The ratio of this age group to those of working age will rise from 1 for every 4.6… More »

There's something to Ryan's plan, but its chances are dishearteningly bad. More »

Japan's government has borrowed so much and for so long, without having to pay higher interest rates for the privilege, that we've come to assume it can go on for ever. At the same time, this gravity-defying feat may lull us into thinking that public debt can also rise far, far higher in the US without giving rise to serious problems. James Hamilton links to a study that casts doubt on both points. As is well known, Japan has benefited from low interest rates… More »

It's good for the country that Romney has chosen Ryan, because it means we're going to be discussing policy for a while. More »

If I've seemed a little bleary-eyed and inattentive this week you can blame Jim Fallows. Late on Tuesday night I read his post about gmail, which linked to Mat Honan's piece for Wired about the destruction of his (Honan's) digital life. I was then up most of the night implementing Jim's advice about improving my computer security. This is by no means the first warning Jim has issued. (His wife's gmail was hacked a while back and he did a memorable article for the… More »

If getting good people in the right jobs counts for something, the outlook for India has improved in the past several days More »

Yet another fascinating piece from Atul Gawande at the New Yorker. He marvels at the Cheesecake Factory's ingenious methods of production, and asks why health care can't be delivered as efficiently as restaurant meals. What won me over instantly was the surprising lack of condescension about the quality of the Cheesecake Factory's product. So refreshingly un-New Yorker. The place is huge, but it's invariably packed, and you can see why. The typical entrée is… More »

Another euro clarification. The ECB may be willing to do whatever it takes, at some future point, once plans have been drawn up, and provided the countries whose bonds it may buy have received a stamp of approval from the EFSF/ESM. The only clear thing in Mario Draghi's press conference today wasn't about what the ECB would do, it was about it wouldn't do. It wouldn't go along with giving the ESM a banking license, which would let the ECB finance it and hence… More »

William Gale and colleagues look at a tax plan with Romney characteristics -- they can't score the actual plan precisely, because it's too vague -- and are decidedly unimpressed. More »

Milton Friedman was born 100 years ago today. What a shame he isn't still around. I'd have loved to read his commentary on today's quarrels over economic policy. More »

The European Union seems stuck in an endless loop of the old joke about an Irishman (aptly enough) giving directions: "I wouldn't start from here." ECB president Mario Draghi caused a surge of optimism, or let's say diminished pessimism, earlier this week with his assurance to an audience in London that the central bank would do "whatever it takes" to preserve the single currency: "Believe me," he said, "it will be enough." Good news, you think: That would have to… More »

The annual report of the Bank for International Settlements--the Swiss-based agency that serves as a kind of central bank for central banks--may not be on your reading list, but if you're at all interested in economic policy it probably should be. I've just been studying the new report for the purposes of a column I've written. (I'll post a link to my article later when it goes online.) The BIS writers have developed quite a talent for presenting complicated… More »

The ridiculous outcry over "You didn't build that" calls to mind the hysteria that greeted Margaret Thatcher's comment, "There is no such thing as society". More »

I'm depressed to see Obama making the war against outsourcing a main theme of his campaign. Do we really have to do this again? This is from a new column, Bashing Capitalism Is No Substitute for an Agenda, at Bloomberg View: Outsourcing isn't new, and it isn't capitalism carried to an unacceptable extreme. It's part and parcel of the market economy. Companies strive to control costs, which lowers prices and raises real incomes. Buying goods and services from others… More »

So Canadian households are now richer on average than Americans, according to Stephen Marche. On July 1, Canada Day, Canadians awoke to a startling, if pleasant, piece of news: For the first time in recent history, the average Canadian is richer than the average American. According to data from Environics Analytics WealthScapes published in the Globe and Mail, the net worth of the average Canadian household in 2011 was $363,202, while the average American household… More »

The quarrel among conservatives over the Supreme Court's rulings on health care reminds me of the saying about academics: Their fights are so bitter because so little is at stake. More »

It's refreshing to see a conservative like Brooks cast the argument for free enterprise in terms of opportunity. More »

A conversation about what lies ahead for Europe, with possible scenarios ranging from gloomy to gloomier More »

The EU's summit deal--accomplished after the obligatory drama of another all-night session--delighted financial markets. Stock markets surged and Spanish and Italian bond yields subsided, from the crippling to the merely unaffordable. The leaders exceeded expectations and took steps in the right direction--but if they don't do more, and soon, I doubt the joy will last. The summit's main achievement was to agree in principle that the ESM, the system's rescue fund,… More »

A vote of thanks to Lori Gottlieb for her response to Anne-Marie Slaughter's infuriating record-breaking piece for The Atlantic on having it all. The first few thousand words or so of Slaughter's article--about as much as I could manage--left me in a state of spluttering exasperation. To critique the article myself, I'd be honor bound to read it all the way through. With my other commitments to family, friends and paid employment, that was a sacrifice I was… More »