Why China Is Relieved the Debt Ceiling Crisis Is Over

Beijing needs U.S. Treasury bills just as much as Washington needs Chinese credit.
China's Vice Minister of Finance, Zhu Guangyao, recently criticized the “attitude of the Tea Party.” (Reuters)

After more than two tense, aggravating weeks, the federal government shutdown in the United States has ended. For Americans, who have watched the charade in Washington with a mixture of anger and bewilderment, the end of the shutdown brings relief: furloughed workers are back to work (with back pay), important government services have been restored, and national parks have re-opened. Most importantly, Congress has agreed to raise the debt ceiling, which means that the U.S. won't default on its payments ... until the limit is reached again in February.

The agreement has also calmed nerves in China, where Communist Party officials spent the last week of the crisis fretting about the children running the U.S. government. On Monday, Xinhua published an editorial (in its English edition only) calling an end to the “pernicious impasse” in Congress and proposing a “de-Americanized world.” Elsewhere, China's Vice Finance Minister, Zhu Guangyao, warned that “safeguarding the debt is of vital importance to the economy of the U.S. and the world” and even went so far as blaming the Tea Party for the mess. This prompted a complaint from the much-mocked Florida representative Ted Yoho, who remarked that Zhu's words “almost sound like a threat.” 

The explanation for China's frayed nerves is pretty simple: Beijing owns $1.28 trillion in U.S. Treasury bills, a figure higher than any other country in the world. The devaluation of the U.S. dollar would reduce the value of China's holdings and make it more difficult for Americans to purchase Chinese imports, which is a key component of the country's growth model. 

Here's how this works. Ever since China began opening its economy up to markets in the late 1970s, its growth has been driven, in large part, by cheap labor and a cheap currency. In other words, China manufactured inexpensive goods and sold them to consumers in richer countries, like the U.S. But there's a problem. Normally this influx of U.S. dollars would make the Chinese renminbi rise against it—and China would cease to have such a cheap currency. That would be good news for Chinese consumers, but not for Chinese exports. So, instead, the government doesn't let the renminbi rise. It recycles its dollars into the safest dollar-denominated assets there are—U.S. Treasury bonds.  

Put another way, China doesn't buy U.S. Treasury Bills because it wants to—it does because it has to. Patrick Chovanec, chief strategist at Silvercrest Asset Management and an expert on the Chinese economy, put it to me this way: “Imagine that the Chinese economy is a store where the U.S. economy buys products and pays for them with IOUs. The Chinese economy can either keep extending credits to the U.S. to pay for goods, or go out of business. That's the dilemma.”

This mutually-assured destruction isn't all bad; for one thing, it goes against the common assumption that the Sino-American relationship is necessarily zero-sum. But there are also signs that the current arrangement is not sustainable. According to Arthur Kroeber, the Managing Director of GaveKal Dragonomics, a Beijing-based economics research firm, Beijing's total possession of U.S. foreign reserves has remained static over the last two years, and China is now relying less on foreign trade than before. In addition, Chinese politicians may feel domestic pressure to move away from U.S. holdings in light of the embarrassing spectacle in Washington.

Yet there's little sign that the economic interdependence that underpins the Sino-American relationship is going anywhere. Following Zhu Guangyao's criticism of the “attitude of the Tea Party,” Congressman Blake Farenthold (R-Texas) retorted that the Chinese “need to stay out of our politics.” But given how much is at stake for China, though, you could argue that it's their politics, too.

Matt Schiavenza is a contributing writer for The Atlantic. He is a former global-affairs writer for the International Business Times and Atlantic senior associate editor.

Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register with Disqus.

Please note that The Atlantic's account system is separate from our commenting system. To log in or register with The Atlantic, use the Sign In button at the top of every page.

blog comments powered by Disqus


Confessions of Moms Around the World

A global look at the hardest and best job ever


A Stop-Motion Tour of New York City

A filmmaker animated hundreds of still photographs to create this Big Apple flip book


The Absurd Psychology of Restaurant Menus

Would people eat healthier if celery was called "cool celery?"


This Japanese Inn Has Been Open for 1,300 Years

It's one of the oldest family businesses in the world.

More in China

Just In