Instead, I'll comment on the policy aspect: what does it mean if the Supreme Court follows the appellate court's lead, and strikes down just the mandate?
Presumably, the insurance market across the United States ends up looking a lot like New York's market, where during the debate over health care reform it was reported that the cost of the average family policy in the individual market was over $4,000 a month. That's because New York has the other features of ObamaCare--community rating and guaranteed issue--without the mandate. The result was that all the healthy people dropped out of the pool, leaving a few very sick people to buy insurance.
There's a slight difference though: the government is going to subsidize individuals in the private market. If the subsidies keep pace with the cost, Obamacare's nominal deficit reduction is going to turn into a gaping hole in the federal budget.
Under those conditions, the real question is political: will anyone have the guts to repeal community rating and guaranteed issue? Or the subsidies? And if not, how do we absorb the financial blow?
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