In the two years after the end of the 1982 recession, the American economy expanded by 4.5% (1983) and 7.2% (1984), and at the end of that period the American unemployment rate was still above 7%. The OECD projects that the American economy will expand by 2.5% next year, and by perhaps around 3% in 2011. Accordingly, they estimate that at the end of 2011, the American unemployment rate will be just a bit below 9%.Last week I highlighted a post that argued (with statistics!) that the unemployment rate doesn't have much to do with mid-term elections. The problem with that argument is there has only been one midterm election in the last 50 years with unemployment over 8 percent. It was in 1982 and Reagan got creamed, losing 27 seats in the House. The OECD says unemployment will be in the 8 percent range through 2012. Forget the Mayans. For the Democratic Party, that number is apocalyptic enough.
This article available online at:
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2009/11/novembers-unemployment-rate-in-2010-and-2012/30491/
