Dow 10,000?

By Derek Thompson

The Dow pushed past 9000 yesterday to close at an eight-month high. This was just two days after notching a seventh consecutive winning session for only the fourth time in the last 20 years. What does it all mean? Truly, I haven't the slightest clue. If I did, I'd find a way to market that kind of clairvoyance for a seven-figure salary on Wall Street and pool half my earnings into daily sports betting. Instead, as a mere blogger, all I have is analysis. So let's ask: Should investors prepare themselves for a 5-digit Dow?


Almost everybody I can find seems to say: Don't expect the rally to continue in the short-term.  Indeed today, the markets have taken a hit with Microsoft announcing its second down quarter in a row. Here's short survey of analysts' advise advice:

Invest!
"If you're long-term and looking for a time to enter the market, certainly the opportunities are very, very good right now. Provided you can accommodate some likely continued volatility, I think you'll do quite well in the long run." - Robert Zagunis, Jensen Investment Management

Beware!

"The stock market is proving again that its movements don't always make sense. On July 23 the Dow Jones industrial average bounced back above 9,000 for the first time since January--on a day when Wall Street learned that more than 500,000 Americans filed for jobless claims last week." - Ben Steverman, BusinessWeek

(About Nasdaq) "Although the U.S. equity market has had an impressive run since the July 7th lows, what many investors might find less-than-reassuring is how narrow the advance has been. In the Nasdaq-100 index, for example, one stock, Apple, accounts for nearly one-fifth of the 11-percent gain. It has also pulled much more than its already hefty weight in the index. Otherwise, just nine stocks are responsible for more than half the move in the technology-laden bellwether." - Barry Ritholtz

"The last time that there were as many bulls in newsletter land as there are now was -- you guessed it -- the last time the Dow was above 9,000, in early January. That unfortunately means that the stock market's rally can no longer count on receiving much continuing support from the sentiment data" - Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch

This article available online at:

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2009/07/dow-10-000/22065/