I think we can officially say there was a sizeable speculative premium in oil, given that major troubles in one of the world's major oil-producing regions did
little to halt its fall. On the other hand, if that speculative premium was $40--the mid-to-high range of analyst estimates--then we're close to having wiped it out at this point. Don't start pricing minivans just yet.
This article available online at:
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2008/08/oil-falls-free/3957/