I don't buy the idea that Obama lost due to the "Wilder effect" (that voters told pollsters that they'd vote for a black candidate, but secretly voted for white candidates in the secrecy of the polling booth). The main reason is that there's a plausible alternative hypothesis, which is that the large Obama lead in the polls sent independents into the Republican primary to vote for McCain. But we'll have to take a look at the data tomorrow, when we'll have fine-grained information. More soon...
This article available online at:
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2008/01/wilder-wait/2508/
