If left unchecked, the effects of climate change on basic crops—like rice, wheat, and corn—could drive up the cost of Kellogg's Frosted Flakes in the U.S. by up to 20 percent by 2030, according to Oxfam's analysis. Corn Flakes could also rise up to 30 percent in the U.S., and up to 44 percent in the UK, while the cost of General Mills' Kix cereal could go up by between 12 and 24 percent in the U.S. And that's on top of any other price increases due to inflation.
The new report, called "Standing on the Sidelines," also calls out what Oxfam dubs the "Big 10" food and beverage companies for not doing enough to combat climate change by cutting emissions from their agricultural supply chains and lobbying for governmental action.
Oxfam argues that warming is already having an impact on the American breakfast table. "In rich countries at the moment, we're starting to see the impacts in people's pockets, having to pay more for the products that they are used to consuming on a daily basis," says Oxfam's Tim Gore, one of the report's authors.
Staples like corn and rice will double in cost by 2030, with half of that increase due to climate change, according to the report. To estimate the impact this will have on the retail prices of specific products, Oxfam constructed a model using "historical grain and consumer product prices, product ingredient lists and nutrition labels, and historical examples of how rising commodity prices affect retail prices."
Earlier this year, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported that changes in temperature and precipitation together could contribute to global food cost increases somewhere in the wide range of 3 to 84 percent by 2050.
"As yields fall, prices rise, and so what this is going to translate into is higher prices for things like breakfast cereals," Gore says.
Oxfam says climate impacts can be felt elsewhere on the breakfast table, too.
"Look at your cup of coffee," Gore says. "Certainly coffee is one of the crops that is most vulnerable to climate impacts. We're seeing that right now across Central America, and Guatemala in particular, where, as temperatures increase, there's a particular fungal disease called coffee rust, which is devastating the coffee crop across the region."
According to the Oxfam study, high temperatures killed up to 40 percent of Guatemala's coffee harvests in 2013–2014. The IPCC recently stated that the amount land suitable for growing coffee in Costa Rica, Nicaragua and El Salvador will be reduced by more than 40 percent, while coffee crops in Colombia will be forced to higher altitudes.
"What this means for consumers in the US and elsewhere is that the very high-quality Arabica coffee beans that we like to enjoy will become more scarce and therefore more expensive," Gore says.
Oxfam says there's evidence to suggest that the breakfast cereal industry is already vulnerable to bad weather. General Mills told investors in March that recent brutal winter had dampened economic performance: "We lost 62 days of production…Trucks could not move, and the rail system becomes less efficient," said Ken Powell, the CEO of General Mills. "It disrupted plant operations and logistics," he explained.
So what are the major food producers doing to limit the threats posed by climate change?
Oxfam analyzed the emissions from 10 companies, including Associated British Foods, Coca-Cola, Danone, General Mills, Kellogg, Mars, Mondelēz International, Nestlé, PepsiCo, and Unilever, and found that their combined greenhouse gases, if thought of as a single country, would rank them as the 25th most emitting country in the world, with 263.7 million metric tons of greenhouse gases per year. These 10 companies derive their emissions from a number of different sectors, broken down in the chart from Oxfam below:
One of Oxfam's major findings is that while these companies have all set targets to reduce some of their emissions, they are failing to take the necessary steps to rein in the biggest proportion, on average, of their footprint: the so-called "Scope 3" emissions that come from their supply chains. (Scope 1 and 2 emissions, by contrast, come directly from the companies' own operations). These Scope 3 emissions can include things like direct emissions from land use—cow flatulence, for example—and the indirect carbon emissions caused by ripping down forests for farmland. In total, these Scope 3 emissions account for around 50-60 percent of the emissions footprint of the 10 companies combined, according to Oxfam. That's equivalent to the emissions of about 40 coal-fired power stations.