The 2 Most Magical Numbers in Paul Ryan's Magical Budget

More

Magical (adj): "delightful in such a way as to be removed from everyday life." [Synonyms: fake, absurd, couldn't-hardly-happen-even-if-Republicans-controlled-both-houses-and-the-presidency]

615 paul ryan 2013.jpg

Reuters

2.1% and $6.7 trillion

Without context, these are inconsequential numbers. With context, they're magical numbers. So here's the context.

Paul Ryan and his budget have taken lots of flack for giving Medicare an unrecognizable facelift and gutting federal spending on the poor and sick to reach his balanced budget goals next decade. Both of those goals are radical and/or visionary, depending on your opinion of Ryan, but neither are quite magical.

What is magical, however, is thinking you can cut non-defense discretionary spending -- what most people think of as Government -- to 2.1 percent, one-third below its modern low. That's what Ryan's budget does. Here's how he does it.

He keeps the sequester -- a $1 trillion guillotine to non-defense and defense spending. But his breakdown of spending pushes virtually all of those cuts into non-defense categories. In other words, everything in our discretionary budget -- scientific research, housing, international relations, education, public safety, public health, environmental protection, job training -- doesn't just get a sequester. It gets a double-sequester! Plus another $250 billion in cuts, under the Ryan budget. Win the future.

Here's the long view of non-defense discretionary spending, with data from Loren Adler and the Bipartisan Policy Center (plus an assist from Michael Linden at the Center for American Progress). The green line is today's law, including the sequester (a law passed specifically because it was so bad that it would force us to change it). The blue line is the Ryan plan (even worse).

Screen Shot 2013-03-14 at 4.24.41 PM.png

"It's just fake," Linden said. "It's just total fake. Ryan's projection is about a third lower, as a share of the government, than any year since [we have records]. No future Congress would ever approve this."

The second most magical number comes from the other side of the budget. We talk a lot about Ryan's spending cuts. But it's his tax spending cuts that are perhaps the most ludicrous.

Ryan wants to change projected tax revenue by $0.0. But his plan to cut and consolidate rates creates a $6.7 trillion hole in federal revenues, as Matthew O'Brien pointed out. That can only be made up by eliminating the biggest (and most popular) tax breaks. He would almost certainly have to tax employer-paid health care, mortgage interest, charitable donations ... the list goes on and on. Ryan doesn't say what he could cut because it would be despicably unpopular, even more so than his proposed cuts. In fact, his $6.7 trillion in mystery tax-spending are 46 percent more than his spending cuts. (Good luck, Ways and Means Committee!)

Screen Shot 2013-03-14 at 4.10.16 PM.png

If I appear to be disproportionately picking on Paul Ryan, it is only because I am. There is widespread understanding that unemployment is a real crisis, right now. There is thorough economic evidence that our most immediate crisis is long-term unemployment and the permanent structural deficiencies it will create. There is widespread belief that we need to reduce future deficits through a combination of higher revenues and lower spending. Ryan's budget neither protects the unemployed, nor fixes their hysteresis, nor proposes a balanced solution to a future budget problem that it also overemphasizes. Make-believe numbers in the pursuit of misguided goals is dark magic, indeed.

Jump to comments

Derek Thompson is a senior editor at The Atlantic, where he oversees business coverage for TheAtlantic.com. More

Thompson has written for Slate, BusinessWeek, and the Daily Beast. He has also appeared as a guest on radio and television networks, including NPR, the BBC, CNBC, and MSNBC.

Get Today's Top Stories in Your Inbox (preview)


Elsewhere on the web

Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register. blog comments powered by Disqus

Video

Miami: The Next Big Start-Up City?

How the city became a center for innovation

Video

Video

A Brief History of Romantic Comedies

From The Atlantic's Chris Orr

Video

Life in 'the New Arctic'

A moving portrait of a fading landscape

Video

Video

The Rise of New York City

A fascinating look at Manhattan in the 1940s

Video

What Is Methane Hydrate?

"Flaming ice" is a vast natural energy source

Video

NASA's Time-Lapse of the Sun

Now with epic dubstep music

Video

Shaken Not Tuned: Cocktail Experiments

Can a tuning fork improve a cocktail?

Video

Video

Is He Cheating? A 1950s Guide

'That little blonde secretary from the office?’

Video

New Yorkers: Vintage Vacuum-Tube Amps

Risking electric shock to restore old amplifiers

Video

The DIY Piano-Bicycle

Everybody needs a hobby

Writers

Up
Down

More in Business

In Focus

Photos of Tornado Damage in Moore, Oklahoma

Just In