'The Best Recovery 2% Inflation Can Buy'

More
This is not what a recovery looks like. This is what stall speed looks like. In other words, a lost decade in the making. (Actually, make that another lost decade in the making).

The chart below compares core PCE inflation with the employment-population ratio since 2010. The former is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation -- it shows how much more households spend, minus food and gas costs -- and the latter is the percentage of adults with a job. (Note: The left axis shows core PCE inflation; the right axis shows the employment-population ratio).

See the jobs recovery? Try squinting reaaaaaaalllly hard. 

InflationCeiling.png


Things aren't getting worse, but they aren't getting better either. 

But this flat job growth hasn't been flat. It's wiggled plenty on its journey to nowhere. And though it's nowhere near definitive -- and the data is certainly noisy -- it's suggestive that these moves have more or less tracked the moves in core inflation the past few years. It shouldn't surprise us. The economy's big problem is not enough spending, and less inflation means less spending -- which means less employment. The same is true for stocks. David Glasner has shown that the return on the S&P 500 has strongly correlated with inflation expectations since late 2008. In other words, markets are desperate for more spending too.

This is what a recovery with a 2 percent inflation ceiling looks like. And this is what the recovery will look like as long as the Fed fears 3 percent inflation more than it fears 8 percent unemployment. It's why the recovery has had a speed limit -- and why 2012 has felt a lot like 2011, which felt a lot like 2010. As Ryan Avent of The Economist quipped, this is the best recovery that 2 percent inflation can buy.

It's not nearly good enough.
Jump to comments

Matthew O'Brien

Matthew O'Brien is an associate editor at The Atlantic covering business and economics. He has previously written for The New Republic.

Get Today's Top Stories in Your Inbox (preview)


Elsewhere on the web

Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register. blog comments powered by Disqus

Video

Miami: The Next Big Start-Up City?

How the city became a center for innovation

Video

Video

A Brief History of Romantic Comedies

From The Atlantic's Chris Orr

Video

Life in 'the New Arctic'

A moving portrait of a fading landscape

Video

Video

The Rise of New York City

A fascinating look at Manhattan in the 1940s

Video

What Is Methane Hydrate?

"Flaming ice" is a vast natural energy source

Video

NASA's Time-Lapse of the Sun

Now with epic dubstep music

Video

Shaken Not Tuned: Cocktail Experiments

Can a tuning fork improve a cocktail?

Video

Video

Is He Cheating? A 1950s Guide

'That little blonde secretary from the office?’

Video

New Yorkers: Vintage Vacuum-Tube Amps

Risking electric shock to restore old amplifiers

Video

The DIY Piano-Bicycle

Everybody needs a hobby

Writers

Up
Down

More in Business

In Focus

Photos of Tornado Damage in Moore, Oklahoma

Just In