Summit of Folly: Europe's Never-Ending Story of False Hope

More
Summit2.png
(Reuters)

I'm old enough to remember when a big European summit was supposedly a big step towards solving the never-ending crisis of the common currency. That was last week.


And the crisis is still never-ending.

That didn't stop markets from indulging in a bit of euro-phoria in the interim. It was understandable. Europe's leaders said all the right things -- even if the details were a little hazy. First, Europe's leaders said that countries wouldn't have to borrow money from the euro bailout fund to bail out their own banks. Instead, the euro bailout fund would bail out banks directly. Second, they said that any bailout loans would not be senior to other loans.

It sounded like Europe's leaders were finally learning from their mistakes. The most obvious such mistake was Europe's wildly unsuccessful bailout of Spain's banks. Just weeks before, Europe had announced that they were piling €100 billion ($123 billion) into Spain's failing banks -- and then watched Spain fall apart faster than ever. That wasn't supposed to happen. But investors were wary due to concerns that the deal increased Spain's public debt, and perhaps made that debt riskier for private investors by subordinating it. Now, Europe was admitting they had gotten it wrong.

It sounded too good to be true. It was.

The chart below from Bloomberg shows the yield on 10-year Spanish bonds over the past month. After nose-diving immediately after the big summit, they have spiked back into the danger zone above 7 percent. It's one step forward, and two steps back.

3Spain10s.png

Why did this latest bout of euro enthusiasm evaporate so quickly? Because Europe's leaders reversed themselves so quickly.

Remember how Europe was going to stop making countries bail out their own banks? The permanent euro bailout fund -- the ESM, which doesn't even exist yet -- would do that. The idea was to break the so-called "doom loop" between weak banks and weak sovereigns. Well, it turns out that was a lie. The ESM -- if, you know, it's ever ratified -- will buy shares in banks, but with a very, very big caveat. That caveat is that the bailed-out country will have to insure the ESM against losses. This is a little like the house-on-fire being ultimately responsible for providing the water. What does that solve?

Guess what? It turns out that ESM loans might still be senior to other debt too. Finland's finance minister helpfully insisted on this point -- although it was always dubious whether the promise to abandon seniority ever amounted to much. Greek bailout loans were never technically senior -- until there was a debt restructuring, and they suddenly were. Still, this abrupt about-face didn't exactly give markets confidence that Europe's leaders agreed on what needed to be done.

It gets worse. Europe conditioned doing these big things -- which they subsequently said they wouldn't do -- on doing something even bigger. That's creating a banking union. In other words, a pan-European bank regulator that acts like a combination of the FDIC and TARP. And that really means sharing each other's debts -- a non-starter for the Germans unless other countries cede control of their budget-making to Berlin.

In other words, Europe has declared they won't save the euro until they create a United States of Europe. As Wolfgang Münchau of the Financial Times pointed out, that means the euro crisis will last for 20 years. Which really means the euro crisis will end much sooner -- Spain and Italy will leave the common currency long before that.

But don't worry. There are lots more summits scheduled in the fall.
Jump to comments

Matthew O'Brien

Matthew O'Brien is an associate editor at The Atlantic covering business and economics. He has previously written for The New Republic.

Get Today's Top Stories in Your Inbox (preview)


Elsewhere on the web

Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register. blog comments powered by Disqus

Video

Miami: The Next Big Start-Up City?

How the city became a center for innovation

Video

Video

A Brief History of Romantic Comedies

From The Atlantic's Chris Orr

Video

Life in 'the New Arctic'

A moving portrait of a fading landscape

Video

Video

The Rise of New York City

A fascinating look at Manhattan in the 1940s

Video

What Is Methane Hydrate?

"Flaming ice" is a vast natural energy source

Video

NASA's Time-Lapse of the Sun

Now with epic dubstep music

Video

Shaken Not Tuned: Cocktail Experiments

Can a tuning fork improve a cocktail?

Video

Video

Is He Cheating? A 1950s Guide

'That little blonde secretary from the office?’

Video

New Yorkers: Vintage Vacuum-Tube Amps

Risking electric shock to restore old amplifiers

Video

The DIY Piano-Bicycle

Everybody needs a hobby

Video

What Does It Take to Make Real Craft Gin?

Tour the Green Hat Gin distillery

Video

Letter From the Editor

The June 2013 issue

Video

What Straights Can Learn From Same-Sex Couples

New insight from decades of research

Video

The End of the Mall Rat

A tribute to that pillar of teen culture

Writers

Up
Down

More in Business

In Focus

Picking up the Pieces After the Tornado in Moore, Oklahoma

Just In