Why the All-Important Greek Election Changed Absolutely Nothing

More
615 greek election 2.jpg

On Sunday, Greek citizens voted for the euro. On Monday, investors voted against it.

And so, an election that we expected to avert an international financial meltdown ultimately corresponded with one.

The narrow victory of the New Democracy party on Sunday was widely seen as a sign that Greece is not ready to abandon the one-currency project yet.* But this morning, Spain's yield on the ten-year bond blew past the bright red line of 7%, which divides the merely-terrifying-and-unsustainable territory to the land of screwed-without-a-massive-bailout. The bloc's fourth biggest economy is one step closer to bailout or bust.

Screen Shot 2012-06-18 at 9.24.43 AM.png
Spain is bigger than Greece. Four times bigger, in fact, as measured by GDP. Which means that when Greece kicks the can down the road and Spain implodes, the markets ignore the sound of foot hitting tin and listen instead to the implosion. Indeed, as Spanish yields soared, the stock market collapsed 2.5% ...

Screen Shot 2012-06-18 at 9.34.25 AM.png
... and Italy's has fallen by a nearly identical margin.

Screen Shot 2012-06-18 at 9.34.04 AM.png
By awarding more seats to New Democracy than Syriza (the anti-euro and anti-bailout party) Sunday's election in Greece was not good news for the future of the euro, so much as the absence of obviously and immediately horrible news from Greece. But meanwhile, around the continent, there is so much obviously and immediately horrible news that it has overwhelmed whatever good vibes investors might have felt from Syriza's narrow loss.

Even in Greece, the election is not likely to do more than kick the bruised can down the road for a few more months. An election won't bring down Greece's unemployment rate, or change the fundamental math of Greece's insolvency, or make the half of Greece that voted against the bailout and the euro any less likely revolt against the austere demands of the troika. The most important election in modern Greek history was, fittingly, another lesson in modern democracy: Lots of hope, and nothing's changed. Your continental meltdown will proceed as scheduled...

____________

* Maybe. Joe Weisenthal points us to this analysis by Jefferies' David Zervos that if you add up the totals for anti-bailout and pro-bailout parties, both sides come out to around 50%: "So while tonight the Greek people did not pull the EMU rip cord, they came VERY close. And a "majority" of Greeks will not be happy with any continuation of MoU policies. We may have postponed the inevitable Greek exit another 6 to 12 to 24 months, but this result is NOT comforting"



Jump to comments

Derek Thompson is a senior editor at The Atlantic, where he oversees business coverage for TheAtlantic.com. More

Thompson has written for Slate, BusinessWeek, and the Daily Beast. He has also appeared as a guest on radio and television networks, including NPR, the BBC, CNBC, and MSNBC.

Get Today's Top Stories in Your Inbox (preview)


Elsewhere on the web

Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register. blog comments powered by Disqus

Video

Miami: The Next Big Start-Up City?

How the city became a center for innovation

Video

Video

A Brief History of Romantic Comedies

From The Atlantic's Chris Orr

Video

Life in 'the New Arctic'

A moving portrait of a fading landscape

Video

Video

The Rise of New York City

A fascinating look at Manhattan in the 1940s

Video

What Is Methane Hydrate?

"Flaming ice" is a vast natural energy source

Video

NASA's Time-Lapse of the Sun

Now with epic dubstep music

Video

Shaken Not Tuned: Cocktail Experiments

Can a tuning fork improve a cocktail?

Video

Video

Is He Cheating? A 1950s Guide

'That little blonde secretary from the office?’

Video

New Yorkers: Vintage Vacuum-Tube Amps

Risking electric shock to restore old amplifiers

Video

The DIY Piano-Bicycle

Everybody needs a hobby

Video

What Does It Take to Make Real Craft Gin?

Tour the Green Hat Gin distillery

Video

Letter From the Editor

The June 2013 issue

Video

What Straights Can Learn From Same-Sex Couples

New insight from decades of research

Video

The End of the Mall Rat

A tribute to that pillar of teen culture

Writers

Up
Down

More in Business

In Focus

Picking up the Pieces After the Tornado in Moore, Oklahoma

Just In